The launch of the iPhone 6 in September 2014 was a huge milestone for Apple.
In the quarter ended December 2014, Apple blew its previous holiday iPhone sales records out of the water with the sale of a stunning 74.5 million devices and a monstrous iPhone sales growth figure of 46 percent year over year.
But is such success sustainable?
Though most analysts concur that Apple won’t see anywhere near that level of growth with the iPhone 6s, their predictions indicate the tech giant may be able to pass last year’s device sales mark.
“In all likelihood we will not see another 46 percent growth – it’s one of those off years, an ‘s’ model year – but on a global basis I expect we will still see solid or significant growth,” said Recon Analytics founder and analyst Roger Entner.
Entner said Apple will likely hit or top last year’s record fourth-quarter sales number but allowed for the impact of uncertain economic conditions in Asia.
“(Sales figures) will probably be in or above that same 74.5 million neighborhood,” Entner predicted. “They broke their first weekend sales record numbers again and that’s a good indication they’ll top the global quarterly sales figures again, too.”
“It all depends on China,” Entner continued. “Everyone is scared of what’s going on in China, but I think China will continue to be solid for Apple.”
Likewise, Strategy Analytics Director of Wireless Smartphone Strategies Linda Sui said the firm estimates Apple will just barely beat its 2014 sales record with the sale of 75-76 million units.
Appster Product Strategist Ray Dellar also agreed that Apple will likely meet or exceed the mark, but said China won’t be too much of an immediate factor.
“If Apple CEO Tim Cook’s statement that ‘sales for iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus have been phenomenal, blowing past any previous first-weekend sales results in Apple’s history’ are on par then I believe we should be in for a stellar launch,” Dellar said. “It unlikely that (tumultuous) economic signals (in China) will have a significant effect on device sales but may slow growth in the geography. I believe Apple will ride on the coat tails of strong luxury product purchasing with little impact by the contraction of the resources and building sectors of China’s economy.”
In the long-term, however, Dellar said Apple may face an uphill battle in the Chinese market thanks to increased competition from Android device makers, including up and coming players like Huawei and Xiaomi.
“Apple may be winning the prestige device battle but losing the overall war with extremely strong Android growth in the region,” Dellar said. “The prevalence of larger screens and deeper customization proved a winning card in the Chinese demographic. With this in mind I believe consumers may turn towards the slew of cost effective Android devices in the market. While it will return strong device sales in the prestige segment, its sales in at the entry level will likely waiver under increased technological and price competition.”