With many products sharing the same OS platform, and with OS loyalty high among existing smartphone users, marketers in the U.S. will need to focus on growth drivers other than OS affiliation if they hope to come out on top in 2013. 

Chief among these considerations will be how to win over the still large group of featurephone users that are looking to upgrade to a smartphone for the first time.

While, according to data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, OS leadership vacillated between iOS and Android over the past year, Android recently regained the top spot as the best selling smartphone platform in the 3 months ending January 2013. 

With 49.4% of smartphone sales, Android realized 6.4% growth compared to the same period last year. iOS was second during the period with 45.9% of smartphone sales, down 4.7% versus last year. And Windows continued to make gains, up to 3.2% of smartphone sales.

But this tight competition has little real movement in gains and it underscores how locked in to operating systems consumers currently are. It also highlights why new smartphone users are the real source of genuine growth moving forward in 2013. 

Of consumers who bought a new device over the last year, 30% moved from featurephone to a smartphone, 30% from smartphone to smartphone, 35% from featurephone to featurephone and 5% from smartphone to featurephone. 

On top of this, circa half of the US market owns a featurephone (in comparison to 39% in the UK). These consumers are currently not engaged with an OS and our research shows that they are more open to OS brands. And with strong OS loyalty among current smartphone users (when changing device, 60% are loyal to their OS compared to 43% loyal to their handset brand), focus for smartphone marketers will need to be on either upgrading their own OS customer base or capture the “low hanging fruit” – this large group of featurephone users. 

And it’s at this point in time where the latter strategy is pivotal. 

With operating systems such as Windows, BB10 and Firefox ramping up, the need to capture featurephone users before they upgrade is growing in importance. The new competition is forcing brands to re-define their objectives, with an emphasis on getting consumers loyal to their OS and upgrade them to higher end products, before new OSs become widely available.

But even with these changes, might the sluggish economy, actually damper featurephone conversions?  

Perhaps not. Kantar Worldpanel Comtech data shows that quarter on quarter, on average 43% of featurephone users upgrade to a smartphone – a trend that hasn’t changed over the last year. And as the research shows, on average, featurephone upgraders spend $135 on their first smartphone, a figure lower than those who purchase their 2nd or 3rd smartphone ($179). As long as more affordable smartphones are available, this trend won’t slow down. 

So who are the early winners in this rush to upgrade?

The top online retailers who have been attracting featurephone users to smartphone brands are AT&T, Verizon and Amazon and in bricks and mortar it was Verizon, AT&T and Best Buy.  

Carrier loyalty is important amongst all users, including first time smartphone buyers. So which carriers are featurephone users currently on and ultimately will benefit from loyalty amongst this group? 

Our data shows of featurephone users, 33% are currently on Verizon, 20% on AT&T, 12% on Tracfone Wireless and 9% on T-Mobile. 

For those featurephone users who are planning to buy their first smartphone this year, what brands will they be considering in 2013? 

For those who own a featurephone and are intending to buy a smartphone – consideration is highest for Apple at 26%, Samsung at 22% and 15% are not sure yet which brand they’ll choose. 

And keep in mind that further adding to this mix will be new players from brands such as ZTE and Huawei to operating systems such as Mozilla’s Firefox, Linux’s Ubuntu and Tizen and Jolla’s Sailfish perhaps furthering their footprint in the US marketplace.

Against this backdrop, then, which brand is likely to prevail as the year progresses? 

Samsung and Apple will continue to be the dominant brands for 2013. This is thanks to both brands having very different strategies. 

Apple maintains its position as top brand in smartphone sales. To continue on this trend, Apple will need to uphold its strong brand loyalty amongst its current customer base while also using its brand equity to attract first time smartphone buyers.  

For Samsung, market factors have always been an important element of their strategy – good distribution, a range of devices at tiered pricing and a strong focus on promotion, which will need to remain the crux of their strategy for future success this year. 

In this first time smartphone buying market, both brands will be under increasing pressure from the likes of HTC, Nokia and Chinese brands, as well as new OS entrants, particularly as 15% of featurephone users remain unsure what brand they’ll next choose.

Mary-Ann Parlato is global insight director for Kantar Worldpanel ComTech. 

Kantar Worldpanel ComTech USA maintains the largest continuous consumer research mobile phone panel of its kind in the world, conducting more than 240,000 interviews per year in the U.S. alone. ComTech tracks mobile phone behavior and the customer journey, including purchasing of phones, mobile phone bills/airtime, and source of purchase and phone usage.