IMS Research said it’s skeptical of industry claims that near-field communications (NFC) using the single-wire protocol will see wide growth in 2009.
“The latest data released by IMS Research shows that SWP NFC-enabled handsets will start to ramp up in 2010 before gaining significant penetration and volumes in 2011 and beyond. Whether this will be the long-term solution is yet to be determined though,” analyst John Devlin wrote today.
“Whilst SWP will account for the vast majority of shipments in the next four years, several companies have developments for SIM-only NFC solutions, incorporating the RF, microcontroller and secure element in the SIM card. These remain a medium-term prospect but IMS Research predicts that they will grow quickly and account for 25% of the market in 2013 as operators work to maximize their position in the value chain,” he added.
“The support from all parties for NFC is high and the feedback from the trials has been overwhelmingly positive,” Devlin added. “Often with a new service or technology there is a period of learning and education for operators and end users. However, with NFC services for payment, ticketing and the provision of information, everyone is able see immediate benefits. Where it breaks down is in how the business partners can best agree to make money out of these services without stepping on each others’ toes.”
Another company, ABI Research, expressed similar skepticism this week about NFC’s prospects in 2009.