Every January the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is held in Las Vegas. For the week, Las Vegas becomes the gadget center of the world and this year was no exception. Each year, one category of products becomes the focal point for most of the press because it has the most buzz or it is a new product classification. Last year, for example, it was 3D television. This year, it was clear weeks before the show that this would be the year of the tablet at CES.
This was also the first year CES set up a wireless pavilion. It was located on the second floor of the South Hall and that floor (and elsewhere) was not only tablet city, but Verizon and its partners were there in force to roll out their own version of 4G or highspeed wireless broadband services: LTE 4G. Verizon put on a great show in its booth, at its press conference, at its analyst meeting, and around the show. It is being realistic in its promises to customers when it comes to expected data rates (5-12 Mbps for the downlink and 2-4 Mbps for the uplink). Today, Verizon covers 100 million of the U.S. population with its 4G system and by the mid-2012 timeframe, that number will triple.
THE PERFECT STORM COMETH
But back to the tablets. First, the iPad is by no means the first tablet to be introduced. Tablets made their original debut in the mid-’90s and were a flop, again in the late ’90s, again a big flop, and once again in the early 2000s, and you guessed it… also a flop. However, this time, wireless broadband and the advancement of screen clarity, processor speeds and memory for storage have come together like a perfect storm for tablets. While the iPad is still the leader and tablet to outdo, there were somewhere around 55 tablets shown at CES. (Apple does not take part in any non-Apple shows so it was nowhere in evidence, except in the press room where many who used to carry notebooks around the show floor could be seen sporting iPads.)

The goal of the new entrants is to beat Apple at the tablet game, to gain market share of their own, and to one-up Apple. By the way, the 55-tablet figure does not include the same number if not more eReaders and other slatelike devices that were also on display, not only at the large booths, but also in many of the smaller booths where companies from China, Taiwan and other countries were showing their own eReaders and tablets. It was difficult to walk the top floor of the South Hall and not pass a new tablet or eReader every few minutes. Based on what I saw at CES and people I have talked with about tablets, I see the following trends emerging:
1) Many different operating systems: Android, by far the largest contingent of products, a few Windows 7-based products, Research In Motion’s own OS based on QNX technology, and a few others, but these are the main contenders.
2) Feature creep: Adding more to beat the competition. One or more touted hard drives (not good for battery life), most have dual cameras with one facing front and one facing back, more memory, dual core processors, and many that are Flash capable. (Of course, pitches for these tablets always make it a point to tell you that the iPad does not allow you to view applications that require Flash.)
3) So far, every tablet I have seen is black – I may have missed one but I don’t think so. Tablets are black, eReaders are white or lighter colors. I guess that is how we will tell them apart.
4) With the exception of the Playbook, all of the tablets are aimed at the consumer world and not the business world. This seems strange to me since the business world is where notebooks had their start.
5) Every tablet has a good if not great screen, but there are differences. The best I have seen so far are from Apple, RIM, Samsung and a new one from NEC.
6) Screen sizes range from 7 to more than 10 inches.
7) They are lightweight and have plenty of battery life (claimed).
8) Wireless: At a minimum, they have Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, but most have wide-area wireless built in as well. The RIM Playbook is an exception, but it uses a BlackBerry as its wide-area modem so it will work outof-the-box on any network that supports BlackBerry devices. (However, I am told that the Sprint/RIM Playbook will have onboard WiMAX support.)
9) Pricing: Most have not “settled” on a price point. I guess they are waiting for the first iPad competitors that are already in the market to set the price points and to see what consumers will pay.
10) At the end of the year, of the 55 tablets shown, only a few will sell in any significant numbers and many will be gone or never make it to market.
Of interest to me as I walked the floor looking at these devices is the diversity of the core processors: Intel but also many others, onboard wireless from many different companies including Qualcomm’s Gobi wireless that supports all U.S. networks (with the exception of Clear) and many others around the world. Intel does not own this product category and I don’t believe it will; it will simply be one of many players. Intel and ARM-based processors are showing up in equal numbers of devices from what I can tell.
What makes these tablets interesting, of course, is the wireless connectivity either built in or available to all of them. Many tablets are scheduled to be available on many different networks from day one, and it is not clear if there will be any type of price buy-down by the network operators in exchange for multi-year contracts. I suspect that is one reason we are in such a state of flux when it comes to data pricing. Flat-rate plans are not applicable for tablets that can stream video and consume a great deal of data, so right now we have tiered pricing models. However, network operators are tweaking their pricing models on an ongoing basis in an attempt to find the right combination of pricing and usage models. Pricing has become not only about making money but one of the network operators’ few network load management tools and, as such, will be changing rapidly as demand for broadband services continues to increase.
CREAM OF THE CROP
Tablets, tablets, everywhere, but when the smoke clears, I believe a handful of companies with a handful of tablets will win the day. The iPad, as it is today and as it is reported to be in future iterations, the RIM Playbook with its business focus and the pent-up demand for business travelers to shed their bulky notebooks, the Samsung Galaxy tablets (two), the Motorola XOOM, and perhaps one more vendor will round out the top five and account for 90 percent of all tablet sales.
The real question is when a tablet stops being a tablet. When it has a slide-out mechanical keyboard? When it has a hard disk? When it weighs more than 2 pounds? Or when its battery life is less than a full work day (we all work 10-hour days, right?). I don’t know the answer to these questions but I am certain we will see much more feature creep coming to tablets over the next year. The tablet war winners will be companies that understand what people want in the way of tablets and stick to keeping the form factor and features within reason. One of the things I really miss on the iPad is the ability to load content that does not come from the Apple store. The Amazon Kindle app bypasses the store, but I want to be able to tether the iPad to my PC or use a USB drive to load new content, pictures, etc.
2011 will be a busy year for tablets and CES was a great way to kick off the battle for the best. At our 21st Annual Wireless Dinner, our Choice Award for the best new device for 2010 went to the Apple iPad, which was the obvious winner. However, since Apple does not take part in CES or any other non-Apple show, no one claimed the award. Until I hear from someone at Apple, the award will be on my shelf, waiting to be claimed.
Seybold heads Andrew Seybold Inc., which provides consulting, educational and publishing services. For more information, visit www.andrewseybold.com.