Apple Pay may not signal a mobile payments revolution, according to a new report from Forrester Research.
“The adoption of mobile payments is an evolution — not a revolution — and the evolution is well underway,” Forrester concluded in a statement.
Forrester estimates that over the next five years, U.S. mobile payments will grow to $142 billion.
Last year, both Gartner and Strategy Analytics lowered their forecasts for NFC-based payments. Gartner lowered its forecast for NFC transaction value by 40 percent, while Strategy Analytics dropped its outlook for NFC mobile payments “to reflect the slow pace at which operators are pushing NFC payments service, limited NFC payment deployments by OEMs, and the continued slow adoption of contactless payments by retailers.”
Last year, Strategy Analytics lowered its forecast to 115 NFC-capable phones, racking up $48 billion in payments by 2017, which was down from 158 million NFC-capable phones and $53 billion in payments.
Many have speculated that Apple’s new solution could super charge the mobile payments space. CEO Tim Cook recently revealed that Apple Pay card activations topped 1 million in just 72 hours.