Some questioned 3G a few years ago,
but not anymore as UMTS networks have proliferated around the world.

To people who have been watching the deployment of UMTS 3G networks for any number of years, something almost imperceptible has happened. People aren’t talking about UMTS the way they used to, and when they do, it’s almost matter-of-fact.

Growth of UMTS/HSPA

Source: 3G Americas/Informa Telecoms & Media

That could be because UMTS has become so widespread in the last year, with 203 UMTS networks in 85 countries around the world as 2008 opens. Another 67 networks are either in planning stages or actual deployment.

Chris Pearson, who watches these network deployments as part of his job as president of 3G Americas, says UMTS turned a corner toward the end of 2007 because of the proliferation of the networks and public demand for what UMTS provides.

“When you look at the combination of mobility, the Internet and access, people are starting to get that it is helpful in their business lives and helpful in their personal lives,” he says. “Operators are keying in on that.”

Many of these UMTS deployments are also riding along with the companion upgrade, HSPA (the combination of HSDPA and HSUPA) because of the broadband data capabilities of HSPA. Of the 203 UMTS networks that have launched, 170 of them also have HSPA.

The ubiquity of UMTS didn’t happen overnight, although much of it has occurred in the last couple years. Japan’s NTT DoCoMo launched the first network, albeit a pre-standard version, in 2001. It wasn’t until 2005 that UMTS deployments started taking off worldwide. By 2006, there were 95 commercial UMTS networks in 45 countries, so in the last two years the number of networks have more than doubled and number of countries nearly doubled.

W-CDMA 5-Year Forecast

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

Now there are more than 160 million UMTS subscribers worldwide and Informa Telecoms is forecasting there will be 1.3 billion by 2012.

With this growth, infrastructure and handset costs have come down, and there are more handset choices for consumers. The Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) says there are at least 403 UMTS/HSDPA devices from 80 suppliers, with more than half of those launched last year alone. Some 75 devices are so-called world phones with three radios for the 850/1900/2100 MHz frequencies.

The GSA also notes there is a movement in Europe to add another UMTS frequency band at 900 MHz, which has been reserved for GSM networks. The lower frequency would have two benefits – allow current GSM operators to reuse their 900 MHz bands for UMTS, and provide better coverage for UMTS.

UMTS rollouts in Europe at 2100 MHz have been limited primarily to urban areas because the higher frequencies would require too much expense for base stations to cover rural areas. The number of base stations can be reduced 60% by using 900 MHz instead of 2100 MHz, the GSA estimates.

Three operators with 900 MHz spectrum already have started using it for UMTS or have announced plans to do so – Elisa in Finland, Vodafone Australia and Optus in Australia. Elisa launched its UMTS 900 network last November. New Zealand and Indonesia regulators also allow UMTS at 900 MHz. France expects to license a UMTS network for 900 and 2100 MHz this year.

UMTS/HSPA in Latin America

Source: 3G Americas/Informa Telecoms & Media

UMTS itself provides better operating efficiencies and lower network infrastructure costs, which Pearson says are behind much of the recent operator interest. The cost-savings on voice calls alone is 60% between GSM and UMTS, he says, while data savings between EDGE and HSPA can be between 45% and 70%.

“To me that is a significant reason that operators are moving toward UMTS,” he says.

On a regional basis, Latin American operators really embraced UMTS in 2007, according to Pearson. Because of the lower prices and infrastructure and the ability to offer attractive services to customers, UMTS has started to catch up in that area. He says there are now a dozen operators in seven Latin American countries with UMTS/HSPA. These are operators who normally expect ARPU in the range of $15 a month.

UMTS/HSPA is a mature technology and is becoming ubiquitous around the world, Pearson says. And he expects it to be the leading mobile broadband technology for another 10 years at least.